Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Players For Sale (2021)
The fantasy football season is over and the current football season is drawing to a close, so it’s officially time (if you haven’t started already) to start focusing on fantasy baseball. For fantasy baseball managers in dynasty leagues, the season never really ends. These leagues generally have large rosters with room for prospects, and a successful team often takes years to form.
The offseason is when savvy dynasty league managers review their roster and identify areas where they need to improve in the short and long term. Most importantly, these managers identify the players on their roster that they should consider sale.
In Dynasty leagues, the trades are a bit more complicated than in your typical draft leagues. The bad deal can be something you regret years, as opposed to months. But the right business can set you up for lasting success. The trick is often not just which players to sell, but when to sell them.
There are different reasons for selling players. You could sell at a high level after a breakout performance that you don’t expect to happen again. You could sell a popular lead for their worth, which is usually right before they get promoted. Or it is possible that you have spotted red flags in the expected numbers of a player and are anticipating a negative regression. The list goes on, but the main point is that dynasty league trades have a multi-year impact that needs to be considered.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at which Dynasty players you should be selling ahead of the 2021 fantasy baseball season.
DJ LeMahieu (1B, 2B, 3B – FA)
Having LeMahieu on the Dynasty’s sell list may seem like blasphemy after beating 0.364 and was a legitimate MVP contender in 2020. But that’s exactly it. Why he is a candidate for sale. LeMahieu has always been a good player with the Rockies, but he has become a great player with the Yankees. He’s always hitting for a good average but rarely offered much power.
In 2019, with the help of juicy baseballs and Yankee Stadium, he hit .327 with 26 home runs, a career best percentage of 40.4 Hard Hit%, an excellent HR / FB% of 19.3 and a BABIP of 0.349 in 145 games. He was also 30 years old and had never hit more than 15 home runs in a season before. But its Statcast numbers bolstered performance. Besides the external factors mentioned above, it seemed legitimate.
In 2020, however, it was more or less the same. In an abridged season, LeMahieu posted similar numbers. Its average jumped to 0.364, but its HR / FB and BABIP numbers were in the unsustainable category at 27.0% and 0.370, respectively. His xBA, xwOBA, xSLG, and Barrel% also indicate an above average amount of luck. In fact, LeMahieu’s wOBA-xwOBA (.067) and SLG-xSLG (.128) both led all baseball (it’s bad).
Some players make their own luck, especially players with excellent contact skills like LeMahieu. But we are also talking about a player who will be 33 years old during the 2021 season. Even if he only suffers part of the negative regression expected in 2021, is this player worth more than what he could bring back? in an exchange?
Brad Keller (SP – KC)
Keller is still only 25 and is coming off a great (albeit shortened) season in 2020. So why sell him? For starters, its value may never be higher than it is now.
Another reason is that there are signs that its breakthrough in 2020 may not have been entirely legitimate. At least there are some indicators that it could be due to a negative regression in 2021. If you look beyond Keller’s final numbers in 2020 at what his numbers are. could Where should were you will see a different story.
Deep breath. Keller’s expected batting average, expected stroke percentage, expected xwOBA, expected ERA, FIP, xFIP, BABIP and HR / FB% all indicate he was lucky last season. . On top of those numbers, he only struck out 5.76 batters per nine innings. And while knocking out hitters at above average levels isn’t necessarily necessary for consistent success, pitchers who rely more on contact are more prone to bad luck over time.
Kwang Hyun Kim (SP – TSL)
Kim moved from KBO to the St. Louis Cardinals in 2020 and had a strong season, throwing at 1.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP while going 3-0 with a save in 39 innings. He made seven starts and allowed one or fewer runs in six of them. All is well. Law?
Well, not exactly. Kim has only struck out 24 batters in 39 innings, and his 1.62 ERA comes with a 3.88 PIF and 4.52 xFIP. And while he kept the ball on the ground with a 50% ground ball ratio, opposing hitters also hit 0.197 against him in part because of a BABIP of 0.217.
Kim transitioned from KBO to MLB in one of the strangest seasons in history. It’s possible that while he was a great pitcher in the KBO for the past several years, the weird circumstances of the 2020 season have contributed to his success.
Kim could very well remain a strong mid-rotation in 2021, but he’s unlikely to replicate his rookie season (he’s 32, by the way). It’s time to sell high.
Mike Yastrzemski (LF, RF – SFG)
Yastrzemski is a great story. He’s the pantheon grandson Carl Yastrzemski who spent several years in the minor leagues before finally breaking through with the San Francisco Giants in 2019. Anyone can join. It’s funny. It is the American dream.
But he’s not someone I get attached to in a dynasty league. He hits about a quarter of the time, and I don’t believe his high BABIP is going to continue. He hit 21 homers in 107 games for the Giants in 2019 (and had 12 more in 40 Triple-A games), but had never hit more than 15 in a season in the minor leagues.
He was on a 30 home pace during the shortened 2020 season, but most projections have him hitting somewhere around 20-25 and hitting around 0.250. He’s a solid player, but if you can sell him based on his 2019 or 2020 production, you might be able to get more for him in a trade than he’ll be worth in a dynasty format.
Beyond our fantastic baseball content, be sure to check out our award-winning list of Fantastic Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. Of our Trade Analyzer – which allows you to instantly know whether a commercial offer is advantageous for you or your opponent – to our Waiver wizard – this allows you to quickly see which players available will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered for this fantastic baseball season.